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Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Earnings Season Is Gold to Some Option Traders

By Morris Puma

Guess what option traders? There's a new options back-tester on the market that you need to know about. San Jose Options has just released the Options Toolkit which can back-test option strategies instantly and gather you organized data, helping you construct new trades with further confidence.

Personally, I'm extremely excited about the Options Toolkit because I have been into back-testing for many years now, so I understand the value here. What used to take me weeks to do, will now take me a matter of minutes with this new options software.

The Options Toolkit is power. How would you like to know if your Iron Condor strategy is really the best it can be? Wouldn't you like to test a few of your ideas? Just imagine how valuable it would be to compare all of your condor ideas and adjustments in just a few minutes. Refining strategies to perfection has never been easier.

My Personal Trading Results for Week 1

The Options Toolkit has just released its earnings tester, and after using it just one week, I have had great results. I made 4 different trades and yielded about 30% net. That is after paying commissions. The software quickly back-tested these stocks for me and gave me the data and confidence I need to make the trades.

I've been waiting for a tool like this for quite some time now. I've spent many hours back-testing my option strategies by hand, and I got burnt out. The Options Toolkit back-tests for me and does a better job than I could possibly do manually. This tool is awesome to say the least.

Here's an example of what I can do with the Options Toolkit. I simply type in AAPL, fill in some parameters, and then I click my mouse. In just a second I can see that AAPL is an excellent candidate for an overnight earnings play. It has averaged over 20% on this strategy for quite a while now. Without this software, it would take me hours to make these calculations. I can now enter another stock and get its data. After using this tool, I'll never go back to manually back-testing my ideas.

Well, I hope you understand what I am saying here. If you don't see the value, then you probably haven't spent much time back-testing. Back-testing is one of the best things an option trader can do. If you want to learn how to trade, then I'd really recommend it for learning adjustments and seeing what you can expect to make or lose on a trade. - 23223

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Currency Profile Of British Pound (Part II)

By Ahmad Hassam

Despite the independence of the Bank of England (BOE), its monetary policy is dictated by the inflation target set by the Treasury Chancellor. BOE has the power to change interest rates to levels that it believes will allow it to meet this target.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meetings are closely followed by the professional forex traders all over the world as GBP is a highly popular currency among the traders. MPC meetings are held on a monthly basis and are closely followed by changes in the monetary policy including changes in the interest rates.

Now closely following what happens before and after these meeting is the job of many professional forex traders who trade GBP heavily. They cant risk the chance of being taken by sudden surprises. Before each meeting, the market guesses the likely outcome. After each MPC meeting, MPC issues statements. These statements are compared with the expectations the market had. Any deviation is the cause of major volatility in the pairs involving GBP. These statements are very important for GBP traders. A Quarterly Inflation Report detailing the MPCs forecasts for the next two years of growth and inflation and its justification for its policy movements is also published.

Another publication, the Quarterly Bulletin also provides information for the past monetary policy movements and analysis of international economic scene and its impact on the British economy. All of these reports are highly informative for professional forex traders.

Bank repo rate is the key rate used in the monetary policy to achieve the Treasurys target inflation rate. The main policy tools used by MPC and BOE are the Bank Repo Rate and the Open Market Operations.

Bank repo rate is set by the BOE for its own operations in the market such as the short term lending activities. Changes to this rate affect the commercial banks interest rates for its savers and borrowers.

In turn these commercial interest rates will affect spending and output in the economy and eventually the costs and prices. An increase in the Bank Repo Rate means BOE wants to curb the inflation. A decrease would be to stimulate growth and expansion.

While assuring adequate liquidity in the market and continued stability in the banking system, the goal of the open market operations is to implement the changes in the bank repo rate.

Both the bank repo rate and the open market operations are used by the BOE to achieve its broad monetary policy objective. The three main objective of the BOE are to maintain the stability of the financial system, maintain the integrity and value of GBP and seeking to ensure the effectiveness of the UK financial services.

These objectives are met through the open market operations. BOE daily conducts open market operations to buy or sell short term fixed income government instruments in order to ensure liquidity in the economy. If this is not sufficient to meet the liquidity needs, BOE can conduct additional overnight operations as well. The United Kingdom is a pivotal nation because it bridges the economical, geographical, and ideological divide between the United States and Europe.

This is a globalized economy. Disturbances that start from outside can quickly become a headache for the Central Banks somewhere else. Oil prices jumped skyward in the early part of 2008. The GBP can be affected more directly by oil prices than other currencies as the United Kingdom is an oil producer. However, the relationship between oil and the GBP is fading because production in the United Kingdoms North Sea oil fields is steadily decreasing. - 23223

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Buying Foreclosures

By Silace Zyllion

. Buying a house in foreclosure can be a complex process, and to make riches investing in foreclosed properties, you have to recognize the process thoroughly. Getting into this form of real estate investing while uninformed can be a very risky proposition

As you being to understand the basic process that foreclosed properties go through, you need to take a look at your community and state laws that manage the purchasing and selling of foreclosed homes. Depending on the state in which you live, there may be limitation on the length of time you you need to live in the home after purchasing it at auction. Depending on your investment goals, these laws may place noteworthy barriers to your investment goals.

If the laws will allow and you feel you could profit from fixing and flipping foreclosures, the subsequently step is just to locate a residence that is in foreclosure. Your regional county posts a list each day, and if you don't want to go down to the recorder's department, there are a number of online services that do supply a daily list of auction foreclosures. Tap into as many of these resources as possible in order to stay informed on what houses may be coming up for auction that meet your investment profile.

Financing is a big part of buying real estate and this is especially true when buying foreclosed homes. Buying a foreclosed home from a courthouse sale requires a substantial down payment, or more often, the full cash amount on purchase. As a result, you must have your financing in place before you buy the property.

Finally, if you have your financing in place, and have found a home that will meet your investment goals, the next steps are merely to bid and subsequently buy the foreclosed home. All through the buying process be sure not to overbid for the home; at auction you may be competing with other investors and it is very easy to bid yourself right out of your return.

Once you have closed on the home and it is yours to keep and manage or rehab and repair, it is just a matter of getting to work. In conclusion, purchasing a foreclosed home is an uncomplicated process; you just need to know what you are doing. - 23223

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Position Trading (Part I)

By Ahmad Hassam

Position trading is all about taking a directional market position and holding it as long as the trade makes sense from the trend standpoint. This means that positions are held for longer term. Now there are four style of trading: Scalping, Day Trading, Swing Trading and Position Trading.

Most individual and retail traders do not have the patience for position trading. Retail traders dont have the stamina to stay longer than a few weeks in a trade. Position trading may mean keeping a trade open from one week to a month to as long as a year or possibly more in the fast moving world of forex trading.

This is somewhat unfortunate as most retail traders dont have that patience to become successful position traders. Only those position traders who have the patience to stick with the trend and let their profits run are generally able to capitalize on these longer term price moves. Position trading can be one of the most profitable styles of trading due to the fact that many currencies tend to trend well on long term basis.

Position trading is unlike day trading or swing trading that relies almost exclusively on technical analysis and is based on short time frames. Due to its long term time frame, position trading tends to rely heavily on fundamental analysis along with longer term technical analysis.

Fundamental analysis concerns itself with the economic forces that drive the major market movements. Fundamental analysis is geared towards longer term price forecasts rather than the swing to swing movements that are primarily the focus of technical analysis.

Technical analysis is based on the study of price action to predict the short term futures direction of the price action. Technical analysis is always short term in nature. The general direction of change in the currency value over the long run is what interests the position traders. This can be only done through the fundamental analysis. The economic forces that determine the long term trend of a currency include interest rates, inflation, GDP, unemployment. Fundamental analysis helps to determine the value of the national currency overtime.

Remember the saying, Trend is your friend. Trading with the trend is what the trend traders do. There is another saying that says, Cut your losses and let your winners run. This is exactly what position trading does. Position trading and trend trading both follow almost similar approaches. Trend traders are almost exclusively technical in nature. However, position traders often rely on fundamentals along with the technicals.

Carry trading can be considered a form of position trading as carry traders hold interest positive positions to benefit from both regular interest payments and exchange rate profits. How do position traders decide which position to take?

Fundamental analysis exclusively! Position traders establish positions on currency pairs according to their views and experience based on fundamental analysis. Forex position traders weigh strength and weaknesses in currencies by taking various fundamental and technical factors into account.

Lets suppose that a position trader is of the view that the US Dollar is indicating fundamental weakness going forward. He/she has performed fundamental analysis on economic conditions surrounding the major currency pairs that involve the US Dollar on either side of the pair.

The position trader thinks that the Euro is showing significant fundamental strength at the same time that the US Dollar is showing weakness going forward. This opinion may have been based on the recent rate of economic growth, comments by the Federal Reserve Board (FED) Chairman or the President of European Central Bank (ECB), the state of ongoing recession, on the state of inflationary/deflationary pressure in the economy and so on. - 23223

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Bargain Properties ? How To Play This Game.

By Doc Schmyz

Distressed real estate is the diamond in the rough that all RE investors are seeking. HOWEVER, without doing your research you may lose far more then you will gain.

A cautious and methodical approach is best in this decision making process. Keeping that in mind, here are some critical area's that must be considered when looking at real estate bargains for investing purposes.

Keep in mind...this isnt listed in any particular order. Its just things to keep in mind the target real estate should meet at least one of the criteria, but not be too heavy in any other areas.

Doc's List:

HOW MUCH AND WHY

Investors ALWAYS see the price first.

So the goal is to buy for cheaper than the current market value and sell within market value or above. So how come the seller is offering such a GREAT price. Is it to settle debt??? Is it due to divorce? Death in the family?

Are there problems with the property that will cost a small fortune to fix? Out dated plumbing??? Poor electrical wiring? In older houses these problems are VERY common. Dont forget to consider holding costs.

My personal opinion is that the holding costs are the number one profit killer. YOU HAVE TO BUDGET THEM IN. Commissions to agents, mortgage, closing costs taxes, all repairs...and dont forget the gas and electric.

Poor determination of true market value is another obstacle to the successful deal. Market value is essentially a subjective exercise where the true value is not known until someone buys the property.

Price other property in the area. Come as close to the size/style/lot size you are looking at buying.

TERMS AND CONDITIONS CAN HELP YOU

What areas can you leverage besides price and location? Financing?

If you have the means you can pay full price but jockey for a FAR lower interest rate or a smaller down payment. Over time your cash flow could be in the black faster due to the terms you set up.

RESEARCH THE LOCAL MARKET

Experienced real estate investors try to learn everything about the market they are shopping in. Sometimes its the small details that give the property you're looking at the best chance to appreciate. For example: How close is the nearest church? Is the area family friendly? What is the local crime rate... is it close to good school? Where is the closest Fire/police station? Does the neighborhood have a community watch program? Next factor in the local floor plans that surround your target property. Was the last owner primarily concerned with vacancy rates, so they keep prices low instead of upgrading the property? In contrast, your research shows that particular upgrades like air-conditioning, second bathrooms, or enhanced security allow for both lower vacancies and higher rental rates.

LOCATION. LOCATION. LOCATION.

Most investors think location is the second most critical thing in the investment next to price. Truth be told...it is only critical if you are looking for a long term residence/renter scenario. If you can make a great profit on an ugly house in a less then great area. It may out shine the "perfect condo" by the beach.

FIXER UPPERS AND FORECLOSURES

A familiar area ripe for investment picking is distressed properties or fixer-uppers. Of course these are the houses that need repairs to some degree. And the investor's job is to discount the costs of these repairs enough so that the profit is still suitable.

With small repairs such as painting, minor landscape, and basic flooring, profits may be available but not really worth the risk. More significant profits are found with extremely distressed properties. Plumbing is corroded, the roof needs replacing, and the interior needs to be gutted and remodeled, but the seller is asking 50% of the market value and you can repair it for much less. Always factor in the amount of work that you are looking at once you have a rough idea of the cost of the expense, add on another 5% as a buffer.

Know what it is ZONED for.

Make sure you research the zoning for the property BEFORE you buy it. If you are thinking of adding a second floor or a granny flat...is the zoning available? Make sure you know before you commit to doing anything that will add or change the SQ footage of the property.

These are often bargains because the price is based on current use. So the single unit residential is priced low while the double unit duplex could be sold higher or rented out. Harder to find as developers stay more aware of zoning allowances these days.

Garages converted without permits, Granny flats that get added...etc...etc. These are common examples. - 23223

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