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Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Currency Profile Of British Pound (Part II)

By Ahmad Hassam

Despite the independence of the Bank of England (BOE), its monetary policy is dictated by the inflation target set by the Treasury Chancellor. BOE has the power to change interest rates to levels that it believes will allow it to meet this target.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meetings are closely followed by the professional forex traders all over the world as GBP is a highly popular currency among the traders. MPC meetings are held on a monthly basis and are closely followed by changes in the monetary policy including changes in the interest rates.

Now closely following what happens before and after these meeting is the job of many professional forex traders who trade GBP heavily. They cant risk the chance of being taken by sudden surprises. Before each meeting, the market guesses the likely outcome. After each MPC meeting, MPC issues statements. These statements are compared with the expectations the market had. Any deviation is the cause of major volatility in the pairs involving GBP. These statements are very important for GBP traders. A Quarterly Inflation Report detailing the MPCs forecasts for the next two years of growth and inflation and its justification for its policy movements is also published.

Another publication, the Quarterly Bulletin also provides information for the past monetary policy movements and analysis of international economic scene and its impact on the British economy. All of these reports are highly informative for professional forex traders.

Bank repo rate is the key rate used in the monetary policy to achieve the Treasurys target inflation rate. The main policy tools used by MPC and BOE are the Bank Repo Rate and the Open Market Operations.

Bank repo rate is set by the BOE for its own operations in the market such as the short term lending activities. Changes to this rate affect the commercial banks interest rates for its savers and borrowers.

In turn these commercial interest rates will affect spending and output in the economy and eventually the costs and prices. An increase in the Bank Repo Rate means BOE wants to curb the inflation. A decrease would be to stimulate growth and expansion.

While assuring adequate liquidity in the market and continued stability in the banking system, the goal of the open market operations is to implement the changes in the bank repo rate.

Both the bank repo rate and the open market operations are used by the BOE to achieve its broad monetary policy objective. The three main objective of the BOE are to maintain the stability of the financial system, maintain the integrity and value of GBP and seeking to ensure the effectiveness of the UK financial services.

These objectives are met through the open market operations. BOE daily conducts open market operations to buy or sell short term fixed income government instruments in order to ensure liquidity in the economy. If this is not sufficient to meet the liquidity needs, BOE can conduct additional overnight operations as well. The United Kingdom is a pivotal nation because it bridges the economical, geographical, and ideological divide between the United States and Europe.

This is a globalized economy. Disturbances that start from outside can quickly become a headache for the Central Banks somewhere else. Oil prices jumped skyward in the early part of 2008. The GBP can be affected more directly by oil prices than other currencies as the United Kingdom is an oil producer. However, the relationship between oil and the GBP is fading because production in the United Kingdoms North Sea oil fields is steadily decreasing. - 23223

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