Choosing A Forex Signal Provider - A Look At Win Percentage
It would seem that the closer a trader is to 100% winning trades, the better trader they are. On the flip side it would seem that the closer they are to 0%, the worse they are. While it is certainly true that you would like to win the most trades possible, there is more to it than that. I would argue that a 95% win rate is infinitely worse than a 65% win rate. Hopefully this article will help to tell you why.
Our first look will be at those traders with a low win rate, say those with a classification within the 0% to 40% range. If the trader falls closer to the 0% rate one would think him to be a genuine loser. In truth, most in this category are losing traders. But you will sometimes see a trader trying to snag really large moves with really tight stops. This guy may show an extremely low win percentage but could still be a very successful player.
The next range is from ~40% to ~70%. This is the range most winning traders will be in. The reason these traders win is not because they pick a ton of winning trades and rarely have a loser. They may in fact have more losing trades than winning trades. The reason they are able to win is that they properly manage their trades once they are open. They use reasonable stops that will often be executed. This obviously results in a losing trade, but a small loser. These small losers are only a fraction of the size of their winning trades. These are most often the traders that have the ability to cut their losses but let their winners run. This seems like a simple concept, but very few traders have the discipline to actually do it.
Our final grouping is in the very high range of a percentage of 70 and above. Most people want to fall on the bandwagon of a trader who is close to 100%. Most people are making a mistake; they should actually align themselves with the trader of a much more modest % win rate. Why is that, you may ask? The reason for the high win percentage of these traders is that they are most of the time taking profits off the table as they appear. A working plan if they also cut their losses in the same way. Any trader, though with a 95 % plus win rate is not following this plan. They do not accept small losses and go forward with their trading day. Oh no, they allow a loser to run rampant for all eternity and may even add to that position in some circumstances. You can see that this in time will wipe out many months of winning trades in one blow and the results are disastrous. For every 500 pip winners obtained one at a time, one 500 pip loser negates them all. And yet, this trader falls into our "winning" range of over 99% winning trades and is in reality a big loser.
The point of this article is not to say that no one outside of the predetermined range can possibly be a winning trader. Surely many people can and do win with a win % outside of my range. I just want to warn you that if someone has a 95% win rate you should stand aside and hope not to get hit by any debris when they eventually implode. - 23223
Our first look will be at those traders with a low win rate, say those with a classification within the 0% to 40% range. If the trader falls closer to the 0% rate one would think him to be a genuine loser. In truth, most in this category are losing traders. But you will sometimes see a trader trying to snag really large moves with really tight stops. This guy may show an extremely low win percentage but could still be a very successful player.
The next range is from ~40% to ~70%. This is the range most winning traders will be in. The reason these traders win is not because they pick a ton of winning trades and rarely have a loser. They may in fact have more losing trades than winning trades. The reason they are able to win is that they properly manage their trades once they are open. They use reasonable stops that will often be executed. This obviously results in a losing trade, but a small loser. These small losers are only a fraction of the size of their winning trades. These are most often the traders that have the ability to cut their losses but let their winners run. This seems like a simple concept, but very few traders have the discipline to actually do it.
Our final grouping is in the very high range of a percentage of 70 and above. Most people want to fall on the bandwagon of a trader who is close to 100%. Most people are making a mistake; they should actually align themselves with the trader of a much more modest % win rate. Why is that, you may ask? The reason for the high win percentage of these traders is that they are most of the time taking profits off the table as they appear. A working plan if they also cut their losses in the same way. Any trader, though with a 95 % plus win rate is not following this plan. They do not accept small losses and go forward with their trading day. Oh no, they allow a loser to run rampant for all eternity and may even add to that position in some circumstances. You can see that this in time will wipe out many months of winning trades in one blow and the results are disastrous. For every 500 pip winners obtained one at a time, one 500 pip loser negates them all. And yet, this trader falls into our "winning" range of over 99% winning trades and is in reality a big loser.
The point of this article is not to say that no one outside of the predetermined range can possibly be a winning trader. Surely many people can and do win with a win % outside of my range. I just want to warn you that if someone has a 95% win rate you should stand aside and hope not to get hit by any debris when they eventually implode. - 23223
posted by X - Men @ 7:42 AM
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