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Monday, September 7, 2009

Foreign Exchange Trading Demystified

By Damian Papworth

If you ask the average investor about thoughts on good investments, you're unlikely to hear the foreign exchange market as a popular answer. It is confusing to many people, and its high risk factor doesn't help. This article will try to clear up some of the mystery surrounding foreign exchange.

What exactly does foreign exchange mean? What are the nuts and bolts of this market? Quite simply, it's the money used in different countries around the world. An investor buys money (known as currency) from one country with the sale of money from another. Without this transaction process, the global economy would stop. Whether you know it or not, you have probably engaged in the foreign exchange market already. In fact, it may be an everyday occurrence for you.

Maybe it was on your last vacation; maybe you went to Rome on business, changing some money for a night on the town. Even if you used a traveler's cheque or swiped a credit card, you aren't operating with your native currency if you are in a foreign country. Welcome to the exchange market, which you've already played.

An example of indirect participation is when you buy imported products in your home country. Products made overseas are usually sold in the currency of the country they were made. When they are sold in a country which is different to the one where they were produced, at some stage someone will need to make a foreign exchange transaction, translating the price of the product from the currency where the product was produced, to the currency where the product was consumed. It could be the producer, an importing company or the retailer that does this. Regardless, when you buy imported products, the currency translation will have occurred and therefore you have indirectly participated in a foreign currency transaction.

Part of the confusion surrounding the FX market is the fluctuation of currency. As with the price of most items on indices, supply versus demand factors heavily in the equation. As a certain currency is wanted and demanded on the market, the price will rise, as sellers realize they have something with which to bargain. Buyers are willing to pay more, supporting the whole transaction. On the other hand, as a currency ends up heavy on the supply end, anyone wishing to dump it will have to accept a lower price. This part of currency exchange makes sense when you stop to consider it.

The really tough question though is what makes supply and demand change? This is the 1 question which makes trading in the FX market so difficult. Basically, no-one knows exactly what all the factors are that cause supply and demand to change in these markets. Many traders have a good idea of the major influences, but there are so many things which impact currencies that it is nigh on impossible to formularise the exact reasons currencies change price.

Currency prices are a measure of a countries "economic value" as compared against another countries "economic value". If you think about the myriad of factors which impact people's perceptions of the economy of the country you live in, you can start to understand why predicting FX price movements is difficult.

But your countries economy is only half the equation. We are not measuring the value of your economy alone, rather comparing it against the economy of a different country. Therefore, even if you have a really good understanding of your own economy, you need the same understanding of the other country's economy also.

Further, your currency trades against all the currencies in the world. So you need to know exactly how each individual economy is going, to compare it against your economy before making a judgement call about whether you think the exchange rate will go up or down.

And if you manage to get all your analysis correct, you then need to hope everyone else does too. Currencies can move on investors opinions, expectations met or expectations not met, global sentiments of what is likely to happen as much as global opinion of what has happened. There are fundamental traders (who look at information such as the above to make their decisions) and technical traders. (who just follow graphs and don't care why) Both trader groups can impact the price as they impact supply and demand.

There are also types of investors who buy currencies far in advance of any hopes of selling, waiting to see the long-term growth. Many use this investment to support other, unrelated ventures. Naturally, this will affect the prices. It's a complicated equation.

Then there are Foreign Exchange Trading Strategies which don't need to predict if a currency is going to go up or down. It doesn't matter which way the traded currencies move, they make small incremental profits in both directions.

I hope this helps take some of the mystery out of the FOREX market. - 23223

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