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Sunday, August 16, 2009

Filthy Rich Trader Comes Clean and Shares His Secret

By Shawn Tilman

Are you ready to learn a sure-fire system for generating quick and easy cash flow from the stock market?

This money pulling indicator is used by billion dollar hedge fund traders like Steve Cohen who's firm has average over 40% a year!

Some 40 traders work under him. He is the king of tracking the volume of any given stock or market.

Most non-professional traders either overlook volume, or simply do not know how to use it correctly.

This article and lesson is about how to READ volume correctly. Don't be arrogant. Even if you think you know everything there is to know about volume, you owe it to yourself to read this article and make sure you know how to use volume to super-charge your stock market profits.

Each measured unit of volume represents the meeting of minds between two individuals: a buyer and a seller. Volume measures shares or contracts that have changed hands. Volume is most commonly shown as a histogram bar below the stock price. Volume reveals clues about the psychology of bulls and bears. Rising volume confirms trends while falling volume means you should question the longevity of the existing trend.

As a stock sells off and falls, keep an eye on the volume. If the volume picks up into the downward move it means that fear has firmly gripped the crowd of traders trading your particular stock. Now notice the upticks and shallow buy orders every now and then. These are the rookie stock traders buying a downward move in hopes that the trend reverses and heads back up. We like these rookie traders. Why? In order for our sell order to execute, there has to be a buyer somewhere. But you need to know that buying into a downward trend is most often a bad idea. It is called trying to catch a falling knife. Never think you are smarter than the crowd by betting against them. The crowd always wins. Let some other rookie trader play that game. When all the sellers get out of a stock, the volume on the downside will fall off as the downward move runs out of steam.

In an uptrend, rising volume shows that greed is setting in as people dog pile into the stock. It also shows sellers dumping their position betting that the market is going to turn around. Remember, in order for a buy order to execute, there has to be a seller somewhere. Selling into an uptrend makes sense only if your original profit thesis (target) has been met. When all the buyers are done chasing the stock higher, the volume on the upside falls as the uptrend runs out of steam.

Volume goes beyond just telling the conviction of a current trend, it gives you several clues.

A spike in volume on 1 day often signals the beginning of a new trend when it occurs on a breakout from a trading range. A spike in volume like this can also signal the ending of a trend. Very high volume that is 300% or more of the average volume signals market hysteria. This is when fearful bulls finally decide that this uptrend is for real and rush in to buy or it is when fearful bears become convinced that a decline has no bottom and rush in to sell short.

Divergences between price and volume tend to occur at turning points.

When prices rise to a new high but volume falls, it shows that the uptrend attracts less interest. When prices fall to a new low and volume falls, it shows that lower prices attract little interest and an upside reversal is likely. Price is more important than volume, but good traders always analyze volume to gauge the psychology of the crowd. - 23223

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