Lotto, Is This The Best CFD Trading Strategy
The two critical numbers to know when you are trading is the risk reward ratio and the winning percentage or hit rate. Understanding these numbers will go a long way to improving your trading.
To calculate the hit rate divide the number of profitable trades by the total number of trades. The risk reward is the average win divided by the average loss. The risk reward is a measure of how your profits compare to your losses, while the hit rate measures how often your strategy is profitable.
Lotto versus CFDs
Most people have bought lotto tickets at some point in their life, however is lotto the way to riches?
The risk is very low, lets say $10 for a ticket, while the reward is potentially huge, with first prize being many millions of dollars, say $10 million. The risk reward ratio of this investment is exceptional at 1 million to 1. There are very few investments that deliver this kind of risk reward.
However if it was that easy we would have all won lotto. This is not the case and while the risk reward is exceptional, the hit rate is lousy. Assuming that the lotto draw requires 6 balls out of 40 to win then the chance of buying the winning ticket are 3,838,380:1.
If we were to play Lotto 3,838,380 times then we would expect to win once and lose 3,838,379 times. This means we would win $10 million once and lose $38,383,790, overall losing $28,383,790.
Winning Lotto is more about luck than probability as you may win before you buy you 3,838,380 ticket. But when it comes to building a profitable trading strategy it is not about luck it is about taking advantage of an opportunity that has a profitable edge.
Can Betting On Rugby Improve Your Trading?
The Crusaders have consistently won the Super 14 rugby competition in NZ managing to secure 7 wins over the last ten years.
In 2008 a gambler placed a $100,000 bet on the Crusaders to win a game at odds of just 1.08. This means that if the Crusaders won the gambler would have received a payout of $108,000, making a profit of just $8,000, but if they lost the gambler would lose $100,000. This is a lousy edge ratio with the risk reward ratio of 8 to 100 and a potential big loss for a very small gain.
However when you consider the odds of a Crusaders win they were very high. If the probability is high enough, more than 90%, then this could actually be a profitable strategy.
If the odds were 95% then the gambler would lose only once out of 20 games so he would make $8,000 times 19, $152,000, and lose $100,000 once. His net gain is $52,000. As an investment even though the risk reward is lousy, this could be a profitable strategy if the hit rate is high enough to justify the investment.
To trade CFDs successfully it is vitally important to have a strategy that overall you expect to win because the combination of risk reward and hit rate are in your favour. - 23223
To calculate the hit rate divide the number of profitable trades by the total number of trades. The risk reward is the average win divided by the average loss. The risk reward is a measure of how your profits compare to your losses, while the hit rate measures how often your strategy is profitable.
Lotto versus CFDs
Most people have bought lotto tickets at some point in their life, however is lotto the way to riches?
The risk is very low, lets say $10 for a ticket, while the reward is potentially huge, with first prize being many millions of dollars, say $10 million. The risk reward ratio of this investment is exceptional at 1 million to 1. There are very few investments that deliver this kind of risk reward.
However if it was that easy we would have all won lotto. This is not the case and while the risk reward is exceptional, the hit rate is lousy. Assuming that the lotto draw requires 6 balls out of 40 to win then the chance of buying the winning ticket are 3,838,380:1.
If we were to play Lotto 3,838,380 times then we would expect to win once and lose 3,838,379 times. This means we would win $10 million once and lose $38,383,790, overall losing $28,383,790.
Winning Lotto is more about luck than probability as you may win before you buy you 3,838,380 ticket. But when it comes to building a profitable trading strategy it is not about luck it is about taking advantage of an opportunity that has a profitable edge.
Can Betting On Rugby Improve Your Trading?
The Crusaders have consistently won the Super 14 rugby competition in NZ managing to secure 7 wins over the last ten years.
In 2008 a gambler placed a $100,000 bet on the Crusaders to win a game at odds of just 1.08. This means that if the Crusaders won the gambler would have received a payout of $108,000, making a profit of just $8,000, but if they lost the gambler would lose $100,000. This is a lousy edge ratio with the risk reward ratio of 8 to 100 and a potential big loss for a very small gain.
However when you consider the odds of a Crusaders win they were very high. If the probability is high enough, more than 90%, then this could actually be a profitable strategy.
If the odds were 95% then the gambler would lose only once out of 20 games so he would make $8,000 times 19, $152,000, and lose $100,000 once. His net gain is $52,000. As an investment even though the risk reward is lousy, this could be a profitable strategy if the hit rate is high enough to justify the investment.
To trade CFDs successfully it is vitally important to have a strategy that overall you expect to win because the combination of risk reward and hit rate are in your favour. - 23223
About the Author:
Jeff Cartridge is the author of Supercharge Your Trading with CFDs and created the website LearnCFDs.com Ex-Trader Reveals His Secret for CFD Trading Success
posted by X - Men @ 2:52 AM
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